World Electric Vehicle Day is here, and, as an industry analyst, it presents a great occasion to take a retrospective look at the past decade of innovation and disruption.
Perhaps more importantly, electric vehicle markets are proving they are robust: they can grow despite a global pandemic shutting down factories and are not so much unstoppable as inevitable. If you are reading this, you are probably considering one for your next vehicle purchase (and after some quick internet searching, probably still asking ‘why do they cost so much?)’.
And even if not, you will be an electric vehicle passenger soon anyway as transitions unfold across our mobility services, seas, and skies, as well as our private vehicles.
But in 2021, the momentum behind electric vehicle markets is greater than ever, and strong growth is present in all three top auto markets: China, the US, and Europe.
And in China, purchase subsidy schemes around for over half a decade are being extended to help break in the new energy vehicle double credit schemes moving forward.
Overall, the net effect is electric vehicle policy from around the world is pushing electric vehicles into the mainstream this decade, creating tremendous opportunities for those operating in the electric vehicle supply chain.
Critically, while Tesla still leads market share in Europe and the US, incumbent automakers have been increasing their skin in the game. This year alone there has been over 20 announcements related to increasing targets and electrification plans, as shown in the table.
Source: Automaker announcements
As the market becomes crowded, range will be a key area on how automakers compete for their slice of the pie.
At the other end of the EV spectrum are large, long-haul heavy-duty trucks (HDT). Truck OEMs are under growing pressure to reduce emissions, as one of the largest on-road contributors to them.
However, this challenge is promoting the development of fuel cell (FC) technologies that offer OEMs an avenue to a greater range in heavy-duty applications, whilst (in some scenarios) still achieving low or zero emissions.
Using hydrogen as fuel, fuel cells generate electricity on-board a vehicle, providing the primary power source to drive the electric traction motors, or alternatively, acting as a range extender that charges the traction battery during operation.
But fuel cells are not a silver bullet for heavy-duty transport: significant hurdles need to be overcome for them to become viable. Aside from the typical technical and economic challenges that accompany any new automotive technology, critical to the success of fuel cell vehicles will be the rollout of hydrogen refueling infrastructure and the production of cheap ‘green’ hydrogen – low carbon hydrogen made from renewable electricity and water.
IDTechEx Estimate of gCO2/km Emission for Different Truck Powertrains. 2030 BEV-HDT uses an electricity mix including renewables and fossil fuels, whereas 2030 green H2 FC-HDT uses 100% renewable electricity. Source: IDTechEx
This is not currently happening – a vast majority of the world’s hydrogen is derived from fossil fuels (so-called “grey hydrogen”) and has a carbon footprint which, considering the intended goal is to reduce emissions from the transport sector, means grey hydrogen makes little sense as a transport fuel.
For example, in August this year, Swedish start-up Candela released a new electric hydro-foiling boat, with plans to release a small water bus and passenger ferry later, initially in Stockholm.
A hydrofoil is an ‘underwater wing’ which generates lift when a vessel moves. At speed, the vessel is raised out of the water, which greatly reduces friction. The innovation has more than halved the battery size required to travel 50 nautical miles for electric vessels of a similar size – 45kWh, instead of 120kWh.
The release of the new model – the C8 – made improvements to the design to help improve mass production, amongst other things. The company matched its three-year order book from the previous C7 model in one month.
What is remarkable about the achievements in this sector is that it has largely been met with little to no financial incentives or regulation on outboard or inland vessel emissions, which are both key drivers for other electric vehicle segments, as we have seen (the limited emissions regulation that does exist is highly local: a handful of lakes in Germany and Amsterdam’s central canals).
October 21, 2015 came and went, yet nearly six years later we have yet to see flying skateboards or cars as experienced by Marty McFly in the 1980s. Will we ever see electric air taxis or cars in our cities?
The short answer is yes. In the right applications, electric aircraft can offer cheaper, safer, quieter, and more environmentally friendly air travel, at speeds that offer customers a vastly improved journey time.
Joby has over 10-years of experience in eVTOL design and 1000+ test flights in a full-scale production prototype, beginning FAA certification in 2018. However, the activity in this space should be tempered by the fact that even Joby, with all their experience, say they have “several years” more testing before approval.
While this market is coming, IDTechEx believes it will be at least a decade before we see any widespread deployment of air taxis. One of the major barriers is regulation, rather than technology. From IDTechEx’s sample of the most promising eVTOL companies, timelines are highly dependent on the final flight certification process and regulation around flight operations in each geographical market.
The past several months have seen a number of orders for these innovative new aircraft, with American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, United Airlines, UPS, and aircraft leasing company Avolon, having all placed pre-orders. It is increasingly clear that the demand for these aircraft is there.